So here we are once again at a major football contest, Euro 2020, with a tournament of 51 matches including the ultimate final. The current betting stands at France, the tournament favourites, at 5/1 followed by England 11/2, Belgium 7/1, Italy also 7/1, and Germany at 10/1.
It's difficult to gather anything from such odds so we thought we would use our Proprietary Net Foreign Asset (NFA) Scoring system to provide further insight.
The NFA score per country is based on our forecast for 2022 dividing each country’s NFA score by expected GDP then applying that scoring to each match with the highest NFA score the winner. We apply a star rating to each band of scores such as a 3 country will have a NFA score of between -25% to -50% of GDP with 7 the highest, over 100% of GDP and 1* the lowest a score of more negative than -100% of GDP.
We are using the same match format as they will use in the tournament such as group games followed by winners and runners up in a scheduled round of 16 followed by the scheduled quarter finals and the semis. When we say scheduled, we already know which group winners, runners-up and 3rd places that will play each other in the next round - although we don’t know the teams yet in the official tournament, we do however from an NFA perspective.
Now this throws out some interesting games as the likes of Finland, a 4 country, gets knocked out by even higher scoring Denmark and Spain get knocked out by Scotland, while Switzerland knocks out 4 Austria.
This leaves the quarter finals at Game 47 Belgium vs Netherlands, Game 46 Switzerland vs Denmark, Game 45 Scotland vs Germany and Game 48 England, (it's coming home?), vs Russia.
In the tournament these matches will be played July 2nd and 3rd, but in NFA land we have the results.
Well it’s not coming home, Russia beats England, the Scots also head home as do Denmark and Netherlands, setting up Germany versus Switzerland and Belgium versus Russia in the Semi-finals.
The Euro 2020 NFA final, Game 51, will be, drum roll please … Belgium versus Germany.
Both sides are high scoring 6* NFA scorers so we think penalties could be the decider but in true NFA scoring Germany will win the tournament, well priced at 10-1 in the bookies. Good luck.